Survey shows Yudhoyono still ahead of the 2009 competition

The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

The latest survey on voter preference for possible presidential candidates has shown that incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono would be likely to win an election held today.

Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) executive director Saiful Mujani said Yudhoyono was likely to win his nomination for reelection, although his popularity has sharply declined since the 2004 presidential election.

""If the presidential election was held this year, his chance to become the next Indonesian president would be bigger, particularly if he faced a head-to-head battle with Megawati (Soekarnoputri) or current Vice President Jusuf Kalla,"" Saiful told a media conference on National Leadership Prospects on Sunday.

He said a fight with Megawati would likely leave Yudhoyono the winner with around 55 percent of the vote and Megawati with just 35 percent, while a battle with Kalla would also return Yudhoyono to power with 66 percent and give Kalla only 15 percent of the vote.

""However, the public's electoral preference (for Yudhoyono) in the past year has been declining because of his failure to meet people's expectations to improve their welfare,"" Saiful said.

""This shows that he's not strong enough and the public have not seen any better candidates. From the public's point of view, Megawati, Sutiyoso, Jusuf Kalla and the other candidates are not able to compete with Yudhoyono,"" he added.

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) announced recently its chairwoman, former president Megawati, will run again in the 2009 election.

Former Jakarta governor Sutiyoso has also announced his readiness to run for the presidency. He has recently visited some of prominent figures including Megawati and former president Abdurrahman ""Gus Dur"" Wahid, and Central Java's Mount Merapi guardian Mbah Maridjan.

The LSI survey, conducted from September until early October this year, evaluated the first three years of the Yudhoyono-Kalla government. The survey involved 1,300 eligible voters across the country with the levels of trust reaching 95 percent.

The survey checked the knowledge of the public about the 2009 presidential election, including the importance of a president in their daily life, people's electoral characteristics and the performance of the ruling government.

Golkar Party deputy secretary general Rully Chairul Azwar said the performance of the current state leadership was better when compared with the governments from 1998 to 2004.

""It's a tough task to become a leader in such a transitional period. But if we compare to the previous period, (the current government) is much better although some of the facts show that it's still far from what the public have been expecting,"" he said.

Rully criticized the survey results that still put Yudhoyono at the top of the list, saying that there was something wrong with the survey due to the absence of new faces for presidency.

""This is a big regeneration problem in Indonesia's state leadership. This is also a warning for us, especially political parties, because it means that there are not any good candidates yet,"" Rully said.

Jhony Allen, deputy chairman of the Democratic Party faction at the House of Representatives, said the survey indeed showed that many people would still vote for Yudhoyono on moral issues.

""The survey shows that most people choose their leaders over trust in them rather than their education background,"" he said.

""Honest leaders with good morals are definitely what this country needs.""(13)